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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 11 at the 14

Washington Commanders 21 – Philadelphia Eagles 14

What Actually Happened

(8:44) 3-D.Hopkins 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +1.57 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.24 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 14, worth -0.16 EP
KICK +1.97 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 24, worth -0.84 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model