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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 2 at the 69

Washington Commanders 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(5:18) 5-T.Way punts 48 yards to PHI 21, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 43-D.Sproles pushed ob at PHI 35 for 14 yards (50-M.Spaight).

The Three Options

GO -0.31 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.85 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 69, worth -3.70 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -0.67 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 27, worth -0.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP