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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 6 at the 50

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(2:31) 8-D.Jones punts 36 yards to WAS 14, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, out of bounds. PENALTY on PHI-90-M.Smith, Chop Block, 15 yards, enforced at WAS 14.

The Three Options

GO -0.65 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.80 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 50, worth -3.02 EP
KICK -2.05 EP
  • 21% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 79% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -3.02 EP
PUNT -0.80 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 14, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model