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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 6 at the 58

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(11:26) 8-D.Jones punts 41 yards to WAS 17, Center-46-J.Dorenbos. 80-J.Crowder to WAS 21 for 4 yards (13-J.Huff).

The Three Options

GO -0.99 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.43 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 58, worth -3.44 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -1.00 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 18, worth -1.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model