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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 2 at the 57

Washington Commanders 24 – Philadelphia Eagles 14

What Actually Happened

(1:57) 5-T.Way punts 50 yards to PHI 7, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 43-D.Sproles pushed ob at PHI 10 for 3 yards (96-H.Bates).

The Three Options

GO +0.19 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.35 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 57, worth -3.00 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.57 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 17, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP