4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 10 at the 80

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(7:13) 8-D.Jones punts 55 yards to WAS 25, Center-46-J.Dorenbos. 80-J.Crowder to WAS 35 for 10 yards (54-K.Grugier-Hill). PENALTY on WAS-50-M.Spaight, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at WAS 33.

The Three Options

GO -2.75 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.88 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 80, worth -4.81 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -2.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 37, worth -2.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model