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Kansas City Chiefs

HC Andy Reid
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Oakland Raiders

HC Jack Del Rio
Sunday 2016-10-16 · 16:05 Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum, Oakland US 🌧 Rain Spread -1.0 O/U 46.5

Win Probability

KC
47.4%
OAK
52.6%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • KC offense: -0.094 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • KC on 7 more days rest than LV
  • Derek Carr (LV): -0.022 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • LV defense: +0.037 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
  • KC defense: -0.068 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

KC 22
–
OAK 23
Projected margin: OAK by 1 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 6

KC

No players on the report.

OAK

Vadal Alexander G Out Ankle
Latavius Murray RB Out Toe
Menelik Watson T Out Calf
Nate Allen S Questionable Quadricep
Jon Feliciano G Questionable Calf
Taiwan Jones RB Questionable Knee
Matt McCants T Questionable Knee
Malcolm Smith LB Questionable Quadricep
Clive Walford TE Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

KC 26
–
OAK 10

Prediction missed by 17 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:02 TD LV (12:02) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short middle to 18-A.Holmes for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on KC-38-R.Parker, Defensive Holding, declined. KC 0 – OAK 6
  • Q1 02:19 TD KC (2:19) (Shotgun) 32-S.Ware up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 6 – OAK 7
  • Q2 07:15 TD KC (7:15) 25-J.Charles left tackle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 13 – OAK 7
  • Q2 00:01 FG LV (:01) 11-S.Janikowski 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King. KC 13 – OAK 10
  • Q3 11:41 TD KC (11:41) 73-Z.Fulton and 92-D.Poe reported in as eligible. 92-D.Poe right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. KC 19 – OAK 10
  • Q3 07:51 FG KC (7:51) 5-C.Santos 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. KC 23 – OAK 10
  • Q4 09:56 FG KC (9:56) 5-C.Santos 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. KC 26 – OAK 10

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 KC 4th & 10 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (8:39) 2-D.Colquitt punts 40 yards to LV 15, Center-41-J.Winchester. 38-T.Carrie pushed ob at LV 19 for 4 yards (10-T.Hill).

  • Q2 LV 4th & 6 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 66%

    (10:34) 11-S.Janikowski 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 5 at the 32
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 70%

    (3:19) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete deep left to 10-S.Roberts.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 3 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 90%

    (:28) 5-C.Santos 38 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP
    p(convert) 59%

    (10:53) 7-M.King punts 58 yards to KC 9, Center-59-J.Condo. 10-T.Hill to LV 41 for 50 yards (41-B.Trawick). PENALTY on LV, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at LV 41.

  • Q3 KC 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 98%

    (7:51) 5-C.Santos 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 4 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (6:18) 7-M.King punts 49 yards to KC 24, Center-59-J.Condo, fair catch by 10-T.Hill.

  • Q3 KC 4th & 7 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 40%

    (2:50) 2-D.Colquitt punts 36 yards to LV 8, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 38-T.Carrie.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 5 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (:36) 7-M.King punts 52 yards to KC 22, Center-59-J.Condo, downed by LV-41-B.Trawick.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 4 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 82%

    (9:56) 5-C.Santos 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 3 at the 66 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (3:43) 2-D.Colquitt punts 46 yards to LV 20, Center-41-J.Winchester. 38-T.Carrie to LV 29 for 9 yards (80-J.O'Shaughnessy).

  • Q4 LV 4th & 14 at the 75 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +1.10 EP
    p(convert) 29%

    (2:57) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr sacked at LV 21 for -4 yards (55-D.Ford). Penalty on LV-66-G.Jackson, Offensive Holding, declined.