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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 7 at the 44

Kansas City Chiefs 23 – Las Vegas Raiders 10

What Actually Happened

(2:50) 2-D.Colquitt punts 36 yards to LV 8, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 38-T.Carrie.

The Three Options

GO -0.43 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.30 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 44, worth -2.48 EP
KICK -1.10 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.90 EP
PUNT -0.66 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 12, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model