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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 10 at the 55

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(8:39) 2-D.Colquitt punts 40 yards to LV 15, Center-41-J.Winchester. 38-T.Carrie pushed ob at LV 19 for 4 yards (10-T.Hill).

The Three Options

GO -1.45 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.44 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 55, worth -3.23 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -1.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 16, worth -1.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model