Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 14 at the 75

Las Vegas Raiders 10 – Kansas City Chiefs 26

(2:57) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr sacked at LV 21 for -4 yards (55-D.Ford). Penalty on LV-66-G.Jackson, Offensive Holding, declined.

The Three Options

GO -2.28 EP

What Happened

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.30 EP
71% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 75, worth -3.74 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +1.10 EP