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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 4 at the 4

Kansas City Chiefs 20 – Las Vegas Raiders 10

What Actually Happened

(7:51) 5-C.Santos 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +2.22 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.68 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 4, worth -0.03 EP
KICK +1.68 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.99 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP