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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 2 at the 67

Las Vegas Raiders 10 – Kansas City Chiefs 20

What Actually Happened

(10:53) 7-M.King punts 58 yards to KC 9, Center-59-J.Condo. 10-T.Hill to LV 41 for 50 yards (41-B.Trawick). PENALTY on LV, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at LV 41.

The Three Options

GO -0.50 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.76 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 67, worth -3.78 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.84 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 25, worth -0.84 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP