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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 3 at the 20

Kansas City Chiefs 13 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(:28) 5-C.Santos 38 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +1.70 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.00 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 20, worth -0.28 EP
KICK +2.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.59 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30, worth -0.69 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model