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Philadelphia Eagles

HC Doug Pederson
@
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Detroit Lions

HC Jim Caldwell
Sunday 2016-10-09 · 13:00 Ford Field, Detroit US 🏟 Dome Spread -3.5 O/U 46.0

Win Probability

PHI
50.6%
DET
49.4%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DET offense: +0.125 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • DET defense: +0.130 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • PHI on 7 more days rest than DET
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • QB edge to PHI: Matthew Stafford (DET) +0.168 vs Carson Wentz (PHI) +0.269 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

PHI 26
–
DET 24
Projected margin: PHI by 2 Projected total: 50

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 5

PHI

Bennie Logan DT Questionable Calf

DET

Ezekiel Ansah DE Out Ankle
Eric Ebron TE Out Ankle
DeAndre Levy LB Out Quadricep
Dwayne Washington RB Doubtful Ankle
Marvin Jones WR Questionable Foot
Tavon Wilson S Questionable Neck
Don Carey S Questionable Ribs

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PHI 23
–
DET 24

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:42 TD DET (9:42) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 25-T.Riddick for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 0 – DET 6
  • Q1 01:00 TD DET (1:00) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 25-T.Riddick for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 0 – DET 13
  • Q2 10:26 TD PHI (10:26) 64-M.Tobin reported in as eligible. 11-C.Wentz pass short right to 24-R.Mathews for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 6 – DET 14
  • Q2 03:15 TD DET (3:15) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 11-M.Jones for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 7 – DET 20
  • Q2 00:03 FG PHI (:03) 6-C.Sturgis 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones. PHI 10 – DET 21
  • Q3 09:21 TD PHI (9:21) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short right to 13-J.Huff for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 16 – DET 21
  • Q3 06:48 FG PHI (6:48) 6-C.Sturgis 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones. PHI 20 – DET 21
  • Q4 06:45 FG PHI (6:45) 6-C.Sturgis 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones. PHI 23 – DET 21
  • Q4 01:32 FG DET (1:32) 5-M.Prater 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin. PHI 23 – DET 24

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 7 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (6:10) 8-D.Jones punts 42 yards to DET 20, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, fair catch by 12-A.Roberts.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 1 at the 53
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71% p(FG) 24%

    (8:11) 70-C.Robinson reported in as eligible. 9-M.Stafford up the middle to DET 49 for 2 yards (75-V.Curry).

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 15 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 73%

    (:03) 6-C.Sturgis 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 8 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 95%

    (6:48) 6-C.Sturgis 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 2 at the 76
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EP
    p(convert) 63%

    (4:22) 6-S.Martin punts 57 yards to PHI 19, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, downed by DET-26-D.Carey.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 11 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (1:34) 8-D.Jones punts 34 yards to DET 48, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, downed by PHI-42-C.Maragos.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 1 at the 43
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 47%

    (15:00) 70-C.Robinson reported in as eligible. 25-T.Riddick right tackle to PHI 41 for 2 yards (95-M.Kendricks).

  • Q4 DET 4th & 16 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 37%

    (12:13) 6-S.Martin punts 47 yards to end zone, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Touchback.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 5 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 75%

    (6:45) 6-C.Sturgis 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (5:11) 6-S.Martin punts 55 yards to PHI 17, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 43-D.Sproles to PHI 23 for 6 yards (26-D.Carey).

  • Q4 DET 4th & 11 at the 11 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 96%

    (1:32) 5-M.Prater 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.