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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Detroit Lions
4th & 16 at the 47
Detroit Lions 21 – Philadelphia Eagles 20
What Actually Happened
(12:13) 6-S.Martin punts 47 yards to end zone, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Touchback.
The Three Options
GO
-0.93 EP
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26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.70 EP
- 74% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 47, worth -2.58 EP
KICK
-0.97 EP
- 37% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
- 63% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.70 EP
PUNT
-0.47 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
- Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 13, worth -0.47 EP
The Verdict
Chose PUNT
✓ matched the model
