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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 11 at the 11

Detroit Lions 21 – Philadelphia Eagles 23

What Actually Happened

(1:32) 5-M.Prater 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +1.43 EP
  • 28% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.15 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP
KICK +2.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.21 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 22, worth -0.66 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model