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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 5 at the 31

Philadelphia Eagles 20 – Detroit Lions 21

What Actually Happened

(6:45) 6-C.Sturgis 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +1.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.33 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 31, worth -1.31 EP
KICK +0.98 EP
What Happened
  • 75% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 41, worth -1.78 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model