4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 1 at the 53

Detroit Lions 14 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

What Actually Happened

(8:11) 70-C.Robinson reported in as eligible. 9-M.Stafford up the middle to DET 49 for 2 yards (75-V.Curry).

The Three Options

GO +1.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.77 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 53, worth -2.75 EP
KICK -1.48 EP
  • 24% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.70 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 15, worth -0.70 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model