Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 7 at the 62

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Detroit Lions 7

(6:10) 8-D.Jones punts 42 yards to DET 20, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, fair catch by 12-A.Roberts.

The Three Options

GO -1.38 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.90 EP
60% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 62, worth -3.61 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model