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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 8 at the 14

Philadelphia Eagles 17 – Detroit Lions 21

What Actually Happened

(6:48) 6-C.Sturgis 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +1.77 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.50 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 14, worth -0.03 EP
KICK +1.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 24, worth -0.90 EP
PUNT +0.16 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth +0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model