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HC Pete Carroll
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New York Jets

HC Todd Bowles
Sunday 2016-10-02 · 13:00 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US ☀️ Clear Spread -1.0 O/U 40.0

Win Probability

SEA
46.2%
NYJ
53.8%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Russell Wilson (SEA): +0.339 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • NYJ defense: -0.067 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • SEA defense: -0.100 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

SEA 22
–
NYJ 25
Projected margin: NYJ by 3 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 4

SEA

Thomas Rawls RB Out Fibula
Jarran Reed DT Questionable Hip
Jimmy Graham TE Questionable Knee
C.J. Prosise RB Questionable Wrist
Nick Vannett TE Questionable Ankle
Michael Morgan LB Questionable Hip

NYJ

Eric Decker WR Out Shoulder
Jalin Marshall WR Out Shoulder
Bryce Petty QB Out right Shoulder
Bruce Carter LB Questionable Ankle
Ryan Clady T Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SEA 27
–
NYJ 17

Prediction missed by 13 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:31 FG NYJ (6:31) 2-N.Folk 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-L.Edwards. SEA 0 – NYJ 3
  • Q2 11:34 TD SEA (11:34) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short middle to 28-C.Spiller for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 6 – NYJ 3
  • Q2 03:54 TD SEA (3:54) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 19-T.McEvoy for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 13 – NYJ 3
  • Q2 00:17 TD NYJ (:17) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep left to 15-B.Marshall for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 14 – NYJ 9
  • Q3 04:16 FG SEA (4:16) 4-S.Hauschka 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-N.Frese, Holder-9-J.Ryan. Penalty on NYJ-96-M.Wilkerson, Defensive Offside, declined. SEA 17 – NYJ 10
  • Q4 12:26 TD SEA (12:26) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 32-C.Michael for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 23 – NYJ 10
  • Q4 04:08 FG SEA (4:08) 4-S.Hauschka 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-N.Frese, Holder-9-J.Ryan. SEA 27 – NYJ 10
  • Q4 02:25 TD NYJ (2:25) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick sacked at NYJ 48 for -7 yards (56-C.Avril). FUMBLES (56-C.Avril) [56-C.Avril], recovered by NYJ-17-C.Peake at SEA 42. 17-C.Peake for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 27 – NYJ 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 11 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 94%

    (6:31) 2-N.Folk 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 4 at the 41
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.81 EP
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 52%

    (3:11) 9-J.Ryan punts 31 yards to NYJ 10, Center-48-N.Frese, fair catch by 10-J.Ross.

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 4 at the 41
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 52%

    (:13) 4-L.Edwards punts 33 yards to SEA 8, Center-46-T.Purdum, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 18 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 26%

    (7:49) 4-L.Edwards punts 37 yards to SEA 15, Center-46-T.Purdum, out of bounds.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 13 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (10:59) 9-J.Ryan punts 56 yards to NYJ 8, Center-48-N.Frese, fair catch by 10-J.Ross.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 14 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (7:52) 4-L.Edwards punts 41 yards to SEA 44, Center-46-T.Purdum. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 45 for 1 yard (20-M.Williams; 32-J.Burris).

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 10 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 95%

    (4:16) 4-S.Hauschka 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-N.Frese, Holder-9-J.Ryan. Penalty on NYJ-96-M.Wilkerson, Defensive Offside, declined.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 8 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (2:37) 4-L.Edwards punts 39 yards to SEA 18, Center-46-T.Purdum, downed by NYJ-25-C.Pryor. PENALTY on SEA-23-S.Terrell, Offensive Holding, 9 yards, enforced at SEA 18.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 3 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55%

    (1:04) 9-J.Ryan punts 48 yards to NYJ 36, Center-48-N.Frese, fair catch by 10-J.Ross.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (11:22) 4-L.Edwards punts 52 yards to SEA 18, Center-46-T.Purdum. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 25 for 7 yards (95-J.Martin; 54-B.Carter).

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 5 at the 43
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 47%

    (5:56) 9-J.Ryan punts 34 yards to NYJ 9, Center-48-N.Frese, fair catch by 10-J.Ross.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 52 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 26%

    (2:45) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short right to 11-R.Anderson to SEA 45 for 7 yards (35-D.Shead).

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 4 at the 47 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.72 EP
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 37%

    (1:51) 9-J.Ryan punts 34 yards to NYJ 13, Center-48-N.Frese, downed by SEA-58-K.Pierre-Louis.