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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 1 at the 52

New York Jets 10 – Seattle Seahawks 27

What Actually Happened

(2:45) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short right to 11-R.Anderson to SEA 45 for 7 yards (35-D.Shead).

The Three Options

GO -0.26 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +0.79 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 52, worth -2.54 EP
KICK -1.58 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +0.99 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT -1.22 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 15, worth -1.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model