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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 11 at the 16

New York Jets 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(6:31) 2-N.Folk 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

The Three Options

GO +1.76 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.89 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 16, worth +0.31 EP
KICK +2.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.89 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 26, worth -0.17 EP
PUNT +0.82 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth +0.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model