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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 5 at the 43

Seattle Seahawks 24 – New York Jets 10

What Actually Happened

(5:56) 9-J.Ryan punts 34 yards to NYJ 9, Center-48-N.Frese, fair catch by 10-J.Ross.

The Three Options

GO +0.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.28 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 43, worth -1.79 EP
KICK -0.28 EP
  • 47% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.26 EP
PUNT -0.19 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 12, worth -0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP