Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 13 at the 64

Seattle Seahawks 14 – New York Jets 10

(10:59) 9-J.Ryan punts 56 yards to NYJ 8, Center-48-N.Frese, fair catch by 10-J.Ross.

The Three Options

GO -1.83 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.73 EP
71% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 64, worth -3.69 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model