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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 5 at the 70

New York Jets 10 – Seattle Seahawks 24

What Actually Happened

(11:22) 4-L.Edwards punts 52 yards to SEA 18, Center-46-T.Purdum. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 25 for 7 yards (95-J.Martin; 54-B.Carter).

The Three Options

GO -1.51 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.46 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 70, worth -3.87 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 28, worth -1.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model