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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 4 at the 41

New York Jets 3 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(:13) 4-L.Edwards punts 33 yards to SEA 8, Center-46-T.Purdum, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

The Three Options

GO +0.86 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.74 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 41, worth -1.44 EP
KICK +0.32 EP
  • 52% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.68 EP
  • 48% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.27 EP
PUNT +0.56 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 12, worth +0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model