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Los Angeles Rams

HC Jeff Fisher
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Arizona Cardinals

HC Bruce Arians
Sunday 2016-10-02 · 16:25 University of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale US 🏟 Dome Spread 10.0 O/U 43.5

Win Probability

LA
35.2%
ARI
64.8%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LA offense: -0.090 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • QB edge to ARI: Carson Palmer (ARI) +0.137 vs Case Keenum (LA) -0.060 EPA/dropback
  • ARI defense: -0.056 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • ARI offense: -0.041 EPA/play over its last 8 games (17th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

LA 19
–
ARI 24
Projected margin: ARI by 5 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 4

LA

William Hayes DE Doubtful Ankle
Tavon Austin WR Questionable Shoulder
Dominique Easley DT Questionable Illness
Lamarcus Joyner CB Questionable Toe
Kenny Britt WR Questionable Thigh

ARI

Drew Butler P Out left Calf
Frostee Rucker DT Out Knee
Justin Bethel CB Questionable Foot
Tyvon Branch S Questionable Groin
Kareem Martin LB Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LA 17
–
ARI 13

Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 13 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 02:11 TD LA (2:11) (Shotgun) 17-C.Keenum pass short right to 83-B.Quick for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 6 – ARI 0
  • Q2 12:23 FG ARI (12:23) 7-C.Catanzaro 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-9-R.Quigley. LA 7 – ARI 3
  • Q2 08:46 FG LA (8:46) 4-G.Zuerlein 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. LA 10 – ARI 3
  • Q2 00:29 TD ARI (:29) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-C.Palmer pass short left to 15-M.Floyd for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 10 – ARI 9
  • Q3 00:04 FG ARI (:04) 7-C.Catanzaro 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-9-R.Quigley. LA 10 – ARI 13
  • Q4 02:41 TD LA (2:41) (Shotgun) 17-C.Keenum pass short right to 83-B.Quick for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 16 – ARI 13

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (13:32) 9-R.Quigley punts 37 yards to LA 37, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 11-T.Austin.

  • Q1 LA 4th & 2 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.90 EP
    p(convert) 57%

    (11:32) 6-J.Hekker punts 41 yards to ARI 14, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 19 at the 41
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 52%

    (5:36) 9-R.Quigley punts 41 yards to end zone, Center-46-A.Brewer, Touchback. PENALTY on LA-32-T.Hill, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LA 20.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 4 at the 7
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 97%

    (12:23) 7-C.Catanzaro 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-9-R.Quigley.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 1 at the 11
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.58 EP
    p(convert) 62% p(FG) 96%

    (8:46) 4-G.Zuerlein 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 8 at the 43
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 47%

    (6:00) 9-R.Quigley punts 40 yards to LA 3, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by ARI-29-T.Simon.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 4 at the 91
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (4:23) 6-J.Hekker punts 55 yards to ARI 36, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 12-Jo.Brown to LA 45 for 19 yards (38-C.Davis).

  • Q2 LA 4th & 3 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (1:56) 6-J.Hekker punts 53 yards to ARI 20, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 12-Jo.Brown.

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.88 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 98%

    (:04) 7-C.Catanzaro 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-9-R.Quigley.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 5 at the 39
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 57%

    (12:29) (Shotgun) 17-C.Keenum pass incomplete deep left to 83-B.Quick (21-P.Peterson).

  • Q4 LA 4th & 13 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 32%

    (8:34) 6-J.Hekker punts 44 yards to ARI 5, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 21-P.Peterson.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 15 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (5:26) 9-R.Quigley punts 51 yards to LA 19, Center-46-A.Brewer. 11-T.Austin to ARI 34 for 47 yards (80-I.Momah). PENALTY on ARI-80-I.Momah, Face Mask (15 Yards), 15 yards, enforced at ARI 34.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 12 at the 57 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (1:14) 6-J.Hekker punts 41 yards to ARI 16, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 12-Jo.Brown to ARI 16 for no gain (39-M.Brown). PENALTY on LA-39-M.Brown, Horse Collar Tackle, 15 yards, enforced at ARI 16.