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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 3 at the 73

Los Angeles Rams 10 – Arizona Cardinals 3

What Actually Happened

(1:56) 6-J.Hekker punts 53 yards to ARI 20, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 12-Jo.Brown.

The Three Options

GO -1.34 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.22 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 73, worth -4.13 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.50 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 31, worth -1.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model