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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 1 at the 11

Los Angeles Rams 7 – Arizona Cardinals 3

What Actually Happened

(8:46) 4-G.Zuerlein 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +3.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.15 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 11, worth -0.46 EP
KICK +1.46 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.58 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 22, worth -1.24 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.58 EP