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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 3 at the 3

Arizona Cardinals 10 – Los Angeles Rams 10

What Actually Happened

(:04) 7-C.Catanzaro 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-9-R.Quigley.

The Three Options

GO +3.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.49 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 3, worth +0.92 EP
KICK +2.50 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.55 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21, worth -0.22 EP
PUNT +0.53 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth +0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.88 EP