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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 4 at the 7

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Los Angeles Rams 7

What Actually Happened

(12:23) 7-C.Catanzaro 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-9-R.Quigley.

The Three Options

GO +2.62 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.22 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 7, worth +0.21 EP
KICK +2.10 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21, worth -0.61 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP