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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 8 at the 43

Arizona Cardinals 3 – Los Angeles Rams 10

What Actually Happened

(6:00) 9-R.Quigley punts 40 yards to LA 3, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by ARI-29-T.Simon.

The Three Options

GO -0.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.75 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 43, worth -1.96 EP
KICK -0.34 EP
  • 47% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.51 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 12, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model