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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 2 at the 55

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(11:32) 6-J.Hekker punts 41 yards to ARI 14, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.37 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 55, worth -3.31 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.99 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 16, worth -0.99 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.90 EP