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Kansas City Chiefs

HC Andy Reid
@
PIT Home

Pittsburgh Steelers

HC Mike Tomlin
Sunday 2016-10-02 · 20:30 Heinz Field, Pittsburgh US 🌧 Rain Spread 3.0 O/U 48.0

Win Probability

KC
38.8%
PIT
61.2%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • KC offense: -0.065 EPA/play over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
  • KC defense: -0.158 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • PIT defense: -0.060 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • Ben Roethlisberger (PIT): +0.133 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • PIT offense: -0.034 EPA/play over its last 8 games (15th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

KC 20
–
PIT 23
Projected margin: PIT by 3 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 4

KC

Jah Reid T Out Knee
Charcandrick West RB Out Ankle
Tamba Hali LB Questionable Knee
Jamaal Charles RB Questionable Knee
Phillip Gaines CB Questionable Knee

PIT

Ramon Foster G Out Chest
Senquez Golson CB Out Foot
Eli Rogers WR Out Toe
Ryan Shazier LB Out Knee
Cody Wallace C Out Knee
Robert Golden S Out Hamstring
Roosevelt Nix RB Out Back

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

KC 14
–
PIT 43

Prediction missed by 26 pts on margin, 14 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:34 TD PIT (7:34) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep left to 88-D.Heyward-Bey for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 0 – PIT 6
  • Q1 05:14 TD PIT (5:14) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short middle to 84-A.Brown for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 0 – PIT 14
  • Q1 01:28 TD PIT (1:28) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep middle to 84-A.Brown for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on PIT-84-A.Brown, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. KC 0 – PIT 21
  • Q2 00:49 TD PIT (:49) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short right to 81-J.James for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 0 – PIT 28
  • Q3 11:26 TD PIT (11:26) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep left to 11-M.Wheaton for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. KC 0 – PIT 35
  • Q4 11:17 TD KC (11:17) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short middle to 10-T.Hill for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 6 – PIT 36
  • Q4 07:26 TD PIT (7:26) 34-D.Williams left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 7 – PIT 42
  • Q4 00:08 TD KC (:08) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short left to 87-T.Kelce for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 13 – PIT 43

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 KC 4th & 10 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 35%

    (12:40) (Punt formation) 2-D.Colquitt punts 41 yards to PIT 5, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-10-T.Hill.

  • Q1 KC 4th & 9 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (2:14) (Punt formation) 2-D.Colquitt punts 23 yards to KC 40, Center-41-J.Winchester, out of bounds.

  • Q1 KC 4th & 8 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (:32) (Punt formation) 2-D.Colquitt punts 58 yards to PIT 12, Center-41-J.Winchester. 84-A.Brown to PIT 17 for 5 yards (21-E.Murray). PENALTY on PIT-25-A.Burns, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 8 yards, enforced at PIT 16.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 15 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (11:20) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 52 yards to KC 22, Center-60-G.Warren. 10-T.Hill for 78 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on KC-84-D.Harris, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at KC 28.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 11 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 40%

    (4:38) (Punt formation) 2-D.Colquitt punts 44 yards to end zone, Center-41-J.Winchester, Touchback.

  • Q3 KC 4th & 7 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (9:09) (Punt formation) 2-D.Colquitt punts 47 yards to PIT 8, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 84-A.Brown.

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 5 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (5:25) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 44 yards to KC 17, Center-60-G.Warren, out of bounds.

  • Q3 KC 4th & 6 at the 65
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.39 EP
    p(convert) 40%

    (3:37) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short middle to 19-J.Maclin to KC 48 for 13 yards (23-M.Mitchell).

  • Q3 KC 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 98%

    (:28) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass incomplete short left to 88-R.Travis.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 4 at the 91
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (13:36) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 38 yards to PIT 47, Center-60-G.Warren, out of bounds.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 10 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (6:03) (Punt formation) 2-D.Colquitt punts 44 yards to PIT 26, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 84-A.Brown.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 11 at the 75 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (3:53) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 37 yards to KC 38, Center-60-G.Warren, out of bounds.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 3 at the 3 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 98%

    (:08) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short left to 87-T.Kelce for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.