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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 6 at the 65

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 36

What Actually Happened

(3:37) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short middle to 19-J.Maclin to KC 48 for 13 yards (23-M.Mitchell).

The Three Options

GO -1.43 EP
What Happened
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.95 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 65, worth -3.68 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -1.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 23, worth -1.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.39 EP