4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 10 at the 46

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(12:40) (Punt formation) 2-D.Colquitt punts 41 yards to PIT 5, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-10-T.Hill.

The Three Options

GO -1.16 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.47 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 46, worth -3.13 EP
KICK -1.65 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.42 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.27 EP
PUNT -0.79 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 13, worth -0.79 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model