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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 7 at the 55

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 36

What Actually Happened

(9:09) (Punt formation) 2-D.Colquitt punts 47 yards to PIT 8, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 84-A.Brown.

The Three Options

GO -0.92 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.82 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 55, worth -3.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model