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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 5 at the 61

Pittsburgh Steelers 36 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(5:25) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 44 yards to KC 17, Center-60-G.Warren, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.96 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.36 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 61, worth -3.34 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 20, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model