Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 15 at the 74

Pittsburgh Steelers 22 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(11:20) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 52 yards to KC 22, Center-60-G.Warren. 10-T.Hill for 78 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on KC-84-D.Harris, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at KC 28.

The Three Options

GO -2.38 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.35 EP
73% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 74, worth -4.12 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model