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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 3 at the 3

Kansas City Chiefs 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 43

What Actually Happened

(:08) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short left to 87-T.Kelce for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +3.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.92 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 3, worth +0.25 EP
KICK +2.93 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.98 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.00 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model