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Denver Broncos

HC Gary Kubiak
@
CIN Home

Cincinnati Bengals

HC Marvin Lewis
Sunday 2016-09-25 · 13:00 Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.5 O/U 42.0

Win Probability

DEN
27.9%
CIN
72.1%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DEN offense: -0.099 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • QB edge to CIN: Andy Dalton (CIN) +0.241 vs Trevor Siemian (DEN) -0.011 EPA/dropback
  • CIN defense: -0.083 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • DEN defense: -0.114 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

DEN 19
–
CIN 27
Projected margin: CIN by 8 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 3

DEN

Virgil Green TE Out Calf
Donald Stephenson T Out Calf
DeMarcus Ware LB Out Forearm
Bennie Fowler WR Questionable Elbow
Corey Nelson LB Questionable Ankle
Justin Simmons S Questionable Hand
Dekoda Watson LB Questionable Elbow

CIN

Tyler Eifert TE Doubtful Ankle
Darqueze Dennard CB Questionable Hamstring
Eric Winston G Questionable Back

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DEN 29
–
CIN 17

Prediction missed by 20 pts on margin, 0 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:10 TD CIN (11:10) 32-J.Hill right guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 0 – CIN 6
  • Q1 04:08 FG DEN (4:08) 8-B.McManus 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon. DEN 3 – CIN 7
  • Q2 14:04 TD DEN (14:04) 13-T.Siemian pass deep left to 10-E.Sanders for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 9 – CIN 7
  • Q2 05:02 TD CIN (5:02) 32-J.Hill left guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 10 – CIN 13
  • Q2 00:32 TD DEN (:32) (Shotgun) 13-T.Siemian pass short right to 10-E.Sanders for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 16 – CIN 14
  • Q4 14:56 FG CIN (14:56) 2-M.Nugent 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. DEN 16 – CIN 17
  • Q4 07:01 TD DEN (7:01) 13-T.Siemian pass short middle to 86-J.Phillips for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 22 – CIN 17
  • Q4 04:32 TD DEN (4:32) (Shotgun) 13-T.Siemian pass deep left to 88-D.Thomas for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 28 – CIN 17

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 1 at the 77
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.23 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (14:05) 9-R.Dixon punts 51 yards to CIN 26, Center-42-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.15 EP
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 98%

    (4:08) 8-B.McManus 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 3 at the 41
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.86 EP
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 50%

    (:56) 10-K.Huber punts 32 yards to DEN 9, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 33-S.Keo.

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 10 at the 91
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (:12) 9-R.Dixon punts 45 yards to CIN 46, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 24-A.Jones to CIN 49 for 3 yards (50-Z.Anderson). FUMBLES (50-Z.Anderson), RECOVERED by DEN-33-S.Keo at CIN 46. 33-S.Keo to CIN 46 for no gain (86-J.Wright). The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 1 at the 59
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.57 EP
    p(convert) 69%

    (9:40) 10-K.Huber punts 45 yards to DEN 14, Center-46-C.Harris, downed by CIN-53-M.Flowers.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 8 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (8:43) 9-R.Dixon punts 46 yards to CIN 38, Center-42-C.Kreiter, downed by DEN-52-C.Nelson.

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 10 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (13:00) 10-K.Huber punts 50 yards to DEN 14, Center-46-C.Harris. 11-J.Norwood to DEN 25 for 11 yards (26-J.Shaw; 86-J.Wright).

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 3 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (8:22) 9-R.Dixon punts 53 yards to CIN 20, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 24 for 4 yards (48-S.Barrett; 57-D.Watson).

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 11 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 93%

    (14:56) 2-M.Nugent 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53%

    (6:09) 10-K.Huber punts 51 yards to DEN 17, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 11-J.Norwood.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 6 at the 36 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.95 EP
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 63%

    (4:03) 9-R.Dixon punts 36 yards to end zone, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Touchback.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 10 at the 11 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.22 EP
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 96%

    (:33) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass incomplete short left to 83-T.Boyd.