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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 1 at the 59

Cincinnati Bengals 7 – Denver Broncos 10

What Actually Happened

(9:40) 10-K.Huber punts 45 yards to DEN 14, Center-46-C.Harris, downed by CIN-53-M.Flowers.

The Three Options

GO +0.62 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.24 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 59, worth -3.02 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.95 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 18, worth -0.95 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.57 EP