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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 3 at the 41

Cincinnati Bengals 7 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(:56) 10-K.Huber punts 32 yards to DEN 9, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 33-S.Keo.

The Three Options

GO +0.72 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.45 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 41, worth -1.92 EP
KICK -0.25 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.60 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 12, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.86 EP