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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 3 at the 73

Denver Broncos 16 – Cincinnati Bengals 14

What Actually Happened

(8:22) 9-R.Dixon punts 53 yards to CIN 20, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 24 for 4 yards (48-S.Barrett; 57-D.Watson).

The Three Options

GO -1.48 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.22 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 73, worth -4.36 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.52 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 31, worth -1.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model