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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 1 at the 77

Denver Broncos 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(14:05) 9-R.Dixon punts 51 yards to CIN 26, Center-42-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +0.53 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 77, worth -4.73 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -2.30 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 34, worth -2.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.23 EP