Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 8 at the 84

Denver Broncos 10 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

(8:43) 9-R.Dixon punts 46 yards to CIN 38, Center-42-C.Kreiter, downed by DEN-52-C.Nelson.

The Three Options

GO -2.67 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +1.19 EP
63% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 84, worth -4.92 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model