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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 3 at the 68

Cincinnati Bengals 17 – Denver Broncos 22

What Actually Happened

(6:09) 10-K.Huber punts 51 yards to DEN 17, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 11-J.Norwood.

The Three Options

GO -1.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.36 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 68, worth -3.67 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.04 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 26, worth -1.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model