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SF Away

San Francisco 49ers

HC Chip Kelly
@
CAR Home

Carolina Panthers

HC Ron Rivera
Sunday 2016-09-18 · 13:00 Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte US ☀️ Clear Spread 12.0 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

SF
19.2%
CAR
80.8%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • SF offense: -0.110 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • QB edge to CAR: Cam Newton (CAR) +0.218 vs Blaine Gabbert (SF) -0.095 EPA/dropback
  • CAR defense: -0.141 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • CAR offense: +0.070 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • CAR on 4 more days rest than SF

Predicted Final Score

SF 19
–
CAR 30
Projected margin: CAR by 11 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 2

SF

Anthony Davis T Out Concussion
Marcus Cromartie S Questionable Ankle
Chris Davis CB Questionable Hamstring
Keith Reaser CB Questionable Ankle
Andrew Tiller G Questionable Ankle

CAR

Dean Marlowe S Questionable Hamstring
Jonathan Stewart RB Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SF 27
–
CAR 46

Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 24 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:24 FG SF (11:24) 4-P.Dawson 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion. SF 3 – CAR 0
  • Q1 04:14 TD CAR (4:14) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 28-C.Hyde up the middle to SF 17 for 2 yards (95-C.Johnson). FUMBLES (95-C.Johnson), touched at SF 15, RECOVERED by CAR-54-S.Thompson at SF 9. 54-S.Thompson for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 3 – CAR 6
  • Q2 10:10 TD SF (10:10) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-B.Gabbert pass deep right to 82-T.Smith for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 9 – CAR 7
  • Q2 09:52 TD CAR (9:52) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass deep right to 88-G.Olsen for 78 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 10 – CAR 13
  • Q2 00:06 FG CAR (:06) 9-G.Gano 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-A.Lee. SF 10 – CAR 17
  • Q3 08:44 TD CAR (8:44) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short right to 13-K.Benjamin for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 10 – CAR 23
  • Q3 05:03 TD CAR (5:03) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short left to 13-K.Benjamin for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN [58-E.Harold]. PENALTY on CAR-17-D.Funchess, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. SF 10 – CAR 30
  • Q4 12:43 FG SF (12:43) 4-P.Dawson 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion. SF 13 – CAR 31
  • Q4 12:35 TD SF (12:35) (Shotgun) 2-B.Gabbert up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SF 19 – CAR 31
  • Q4 08:11 FG CAR (8:11) 9-G.Gano 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-A.Lee. SF 20 – CAR 34
  • Q4 08:03 TD SF (8:03) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-B.Gabbert pass short left to 89-V.McDonald for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 26 – CAR 34
  • Q4 04:13 FG CAR (4:13) 9-G.Gano 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-A.Lee. SF 27 – CAR 37
  • Q4 03:36 TD CAR (3:36) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass deep right to 17-D.Funchess for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 27 – CAR 43
  • Q4 01:11 FG CAR (1:11) 9-G.Gano 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-A.Lee. SF 27 – CAR 46

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 SF 4th & 10 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 96%

    (11:24) 4-P.Dawson 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

  • Q1 SF 4th & 13 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 41%

    (:34) 5-B.Pinion punts 28 yards to CAR 16, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 19-T.Ginn.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (8:27) 5-B.Pinion punts 55 yards to CAR 18, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 19-T.Ginn.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 7 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 29%

    (5:03) 8-A.Lee punts 37 yards to SF 12, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 17-J.Kerley.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 10 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (1:56) 5-B.Pinion punts 36 yards to CAR 19, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 19-T.Ginn.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 5 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 25%

    (1:13) 8-A.Lee punts 49 yards to SF 2, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-26-D.Worley.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 6 at the 94
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (:53) 5-B.Pinion punts 54 yards to CAR 40, Center-86-K.Nelson. 19-T.Ginn pushed ob at CAR 46 for 6 yards (24-S.Draughn).

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 10 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 89%

    (:06) 9-G.Gano 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-A.Lee.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 9 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (13:43) 5-B.Pinion punts 54 yards to CAR 15, Center-86-K.Nelson. 19-T.Ginn to CAR 31 for 16 yards (89-V.McDonald; 29-J.Tartt).

  • Q3 SF 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (8:02) 5-B.Pinion punts 54 yards to CAR 19, Center-86-K.Nelson. 19-T.Ginn to CAR 25 for 6 yards (50-N.Bellore).

  • Q3 SF 4th & 15 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 36%

    (2:26) 5-B.Pinion punts 37 yards to CAR 9, Center-86-K.Nelson, downed by SF-89-V.McDonald.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 14 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 89%

    (12:43) 4-P.Dawson 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 8 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 95%

    (8:11) 9-G.Gano 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-A.Lee.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 7 at the 31 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 73%

    (4:13) 9-G.Gano 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-A.Lee.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 10 at the 75 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.37 EP
    p(convert) 32%

    (3:15) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-B.Gabbert pass deep right intended for 82-T.Smith INTERCEPTED by 24-J.Bradberry at SF 43. 24-J.Bradberry to SF 27 for 16 yards (82-T.Smith).

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 6 at the 23 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 86%

    (1:11) 9-G.Gano 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-A.Lee.