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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 6 at the 94

San Francisco 49ers 10 – Carolina Panthers 14

What Actually Happened

(:53) 5-B.Pinion punts 54 yards to CAR 40, Center-86-K.Nelson. 19-T.Ginn pushed ob at CAR 46 for 6 yards (24-S.Draughn).

The Three Options

GO -3.24 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 88, worth -0.04 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 94, worth -5.54 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (111 yards).

PUNT -2.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 52, worth -2.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model